The weather was not the only thing that was hot from July to September, but your investment portfolio most likely was as well. Let’s just hope you stayed disciplined to receive the tough returns. The following is an excerpt from the Matson Money quarterly statement.
“The 3rd quarter of 2016 provided much smoother sailing for the equity markets as compared to the occasionally tumultuous quarters that preceded it. 2016 began with significant downside volatility in the early part of the year, followed by geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Brexit referendum vote, and it seemed like choppy waters was the new norm in the global marketplace. However, despite the talking heads making dire warnings, Matson Money’s recommendation to practice prudence proved to be sage advice, with post-Brexit markets have providing consistent upward movement over the last few months, with the S&P 500 index gaining 3.85% for the quarter, and international stocks as represented by the MSCI EAFE index rising 6.50%.
Another shift began to emerge recently, while U.S. large growth stocks had been one of the higher if not highest performing equity asset classes for much of past few years, we began to see a reversal of this over the last few months. Compared to the 3.85% return of the S&P 500 index in the 3rd quarter, we saw a gain of 9.05% out of small stocks as represented by the Russell 2000 index. In addition, the Russell 2000 Value index which represents small value stocks gained 8.87% for the quarter and is now up 15.49% year to date, as compared to only 7.84% for the S&P 500. We have also seen a resurgence in international stocks, which had also lagged U.S. stocks in recent memory. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 9.15% for the quarter and is now up 16.36% for the year, while the MSCI EAFE and EAFE Small Value – benchmarks for international large stocks and international small value stocks – had gains of 6.50% and 9.78% respectively for the quarter.
This recent shift can be a good lesson for investors. While we don’t know if or how long these trends will persist into the future, we do know that historically there have been premiums associated with holding small and value stocks, and there have been time periods in which international stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks. The recent occurrence over the last couple of years of large U.S. growth stocks being a great performing asset class can tempt investors to become myopically focused and assume that these familiar stocks will continue to perform well into perpetuity. This mindset can result in eschewing diversification and ignoring academically known premiums, which can lead them to make sub-optimal decisions within their investment portfolios. This can be a costly mistake. Diversifying beyond US large stocks has historically had a great impact on an investor’s performance. From 1/1979 – 09/2016, the S&P returned 11.68% a year. However, during this same time period, U.S. small value stocks returned 12.99% as shown by the Russell 2000 Value Index.
A seasoned investor is aware that perceived trends and market cycles come and go, and it is extremely difficult to know when it is happening. They know that staying invested in broadly diversified portfolios that are designed to take advantage of academically known premiums can result in a positive investing experience over a lifetime.
In the end, choosing a wise financial strategy – and sticking to it – can have tremendous impact on an investor’s long term financial health. Chasing performance through buying and selling is a risky game. Historically speaking, it will only reduce an investor’s real return. Relying on unbiased, non-emotional advice from a trusted investor coach to make good decisions can help an investor bridge that gap between what the average investor makes and the return of the market.”
By Jimmy Hancock
References
1. Matson Money. “Account Statement.” Letter to James Hancock. 17 Jul. 2016. MS. N.p.